Winter wheat takes the lead, but spring wheat may not be finished yet

Part of it, Martinson said, is a simple flow; the two classes cannot stray too far from the markets. But there were also fundamental reasons for winter wheat to move forward, including weather issues in the United States and Australia.

But, Rook asked, does that mean the spring wheat party is over?

“I think once we get through the Thanksgiving vacation we go into the first part of December, I think we’ll start to see the wheat from Minneapolis start to move a bit,” Martinson said.

The farmer who sells spring wheat is also one of them, Rook said. But the price of Minneapolis wheat has to stay high to compete with the acres, as the wheat consumes a lot of fertilizer compared to what Martinson called certain “minor crops” that could be moved into rotations.

The soybeans had another good week, once again propelled by the force of the soybean meal. A lycene deficiency means it takes more meals to get adequate protein in livestock feed, Rook explained. And that’s a good thing for soybeans. In addition, said Martinson, dry conditions persist in Argentina, the world’s largest producer of flour.

Soybean oil had taken the lead, but that market has slowed down lately. And for soybeans in general, there are other issues, including export demand.

“Part of the problem is the speed of planting in Brazil,” Martinson said, noting that the progress has driven down the price of Brazilian soybeans. “They are a little more competitive with the United States at this point.”

Corn has seen a week of decline and Martinson said that while demand for ethanol remains strong, exports are only “within expectations”. It will take help from wheat or a weather problem to tell the difference, he said. But fertilizer prices remain a problem.

“Where will the acres end up for South America, because they’re going to have the same fertilizer problem as we are,” he said.

Rook said a drop in oil prices also impacted corn this week.

Looking forward to next week, Rook and Martinson said vacation weeks are always tough.

“By next Wednesday, everyone could guess what this market is doing,” Martinson said.

A report on mixed cattle feed isn’t expected to have much of an impact on livestock markets, Martinson said. Livestock have been strong, with declining weights, strong exports and tighter supply. Exports to China set a record.

“It was huge, I mean, a record amount last week,” Martinson said. “They seem to be heading more towards our beef and a little further away from our pork.”

While this is good news for livestock, it is bad news for the struggling pork market. Demand appears to be the problem in the pork market, Martinson said.

But after Thanksgiving, Rook said, demand could turn in favor of beef and pork as we spend the turkey holiday.

“Demand is the only thing we really need,” Martinson said.

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